Less than 24 hours after crowning the third international winner of The Ultimate Fighter, we’re back on domestic soil to crown a welterweight winner on the 16th installment of the UFC’s long-running reality TV competition.
Unfortunately we’ve run into an all-too-familiar problem with tonight’s finale, as one half of the coaching battle has once again fallen out, as Roy Nelson will take on Matt Mitrione, who stepped in for Shane Carwin when the hulking engineer was sidelined with a knee injury. On a positive front, for the first time in a while (save for TUF 14 which is an anomaly to me), we have a final bout that should produce a reasonable long-term prospect as Mike Ricci takes on Colton Smith in the finale.
While the main event has lost some of its shine, the main card – and the whole card, really – is pretty solid. Lightweights Jamie Varner and Melvin Guillard square off in what has been tabbed as the “must-see fight of the month” in terms of bouts that don’t have any real title implications, and Dustin Poirier and Jonathan Brookins hooking up in a must-win situation in the featherweight division. As if that’s not enough, heavyweights Pat Barry and Shane del Rosario collide in a contest that is guaranteed to produce fireworks, regardless of how long it lasts.
This is a quality card that you should really check out.
As a sidenote, I went a perfect 10-0 with my picks yesterday. You read that correct: 10 correct predictions on 10 fights. First time ever. So pumped right now. Really hope it continues.
Here are my picks.
These are the Punch Drunk Predictions.
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Roy Nelson (17-7) vs. Matt Mitrione (5-1)
As much as he was bummed when Carwin was forced to withdraw, Nelson has to be smiling a little on the inside about the change in opponent. While Mitrione certainly packs a punch, it’s not has heavy as the one Carwin can deliver, and there are far more clear and obvious ways for “Big Country” to win this fight now that he’s facing his TUF 10 cast-mate, and not the former title challenger.
Dana White may not be the biggest Roy Nelson fan on the planet – or a Roy Nelson fan at all, for that matter – but the former IFL heavyweight champion is a legitimate top 20 big man, and far more talented and tough than he gets credit for most of the time. It’s partially his own fault because Nelson is too fond of standing in the pocket and hunting overhand rights, but his ground game is very good, and I would be surprised if we didn’t see it here.
Much like he did during his victorious turn on TUF, I think Nelson drags Mitrione to the canvas, transitions into a dominant position – maybe even a crucifix – and gets a finish. Mitrione is a durable guy and done quite well for himself considered he entered the UFC without any experience, but he’s not on the same level as Nelson, and it will show in this one.
Prediction: Roy Nelson by TKO, Round 2
Mike Ricci (7-2) vs. Colton Smith (3-1)
I really like Ricci as a long term prospect, and think he takes a positive step forward with another strong performance here to become the latest addition to the fraternity of Ultimate Fighter winners.
He has demonstrated his power throughout this season, and proved in his win over fellow Canadian Mike Hill that he knows how to go out and get the job done even when he’s not at his best. I also can’t overstate how valuable I believe training at the Tristar Gym in Montreal under the guidance of Firas Zahabi is for Ricci. When you spend every day working with some of the best coaches and fighters in the sport, you’re going to improve more quickly than someone who doesn’t have those same opportunities.
Smith is going to be looking to get this to the ground from Jump Street, and I just don’t think he’ll be able to withstand the striking attack that accompanies his entries. Ricci works off his jab, catches Smith with something heavy, and pounds out a finish.
Prediction: Mike Ricci by TKO, Round 1
Pat Barry (7-5) vs. Shane del Rosario (11-1)
It’s a given that when Pat Barry is fighting, violence will ensue. “HD” doesn’t hold back, but while that has endeared him to fans, it has left him with a suspect record, and potentially facing a must-win situation here. That’s unfortunate because del Rosario is a dangerous opponent, and should come away with the victory.
While there is the potential for this to turn into a full-blown kickboxing battle, del Rosario has a vastly superior ground game to Barry, and should be able to finish if he takes the fight to the canvas. While the charismatic and entertaining Barry has certainly improved in the grappling department, being on the ground is still not where he wants to be. Unfortunately, he’s had his issues in the stand-up department as of late as well, having been stopped by both Cheick Kongo and Lavar Johnson. Yes, they’re both heavy hitters, but so too is del Rosario, so you can see why I think this will be a rough night for Barry.
I also think del Rosario is motivated to show his UFC debut was not an accurate representation of his skills. He had been off for 15 months prior to facing Stipe Miocic. Though he had his moments, he ended up getting stopped, and I anticipate him using this bout to “re-introduce” himself to the UFC audience.
Prediction: Shane del Rosario by Submission, Round 2
Melvin Guillard (30-11-2) vs. Jamie Varner (20-7-1)
This is a make-or-break fight for Guillard. As much as he’ll likely maintain his place on the UFC roster win or lose, his upward mobility in the lightweight division hinges on his performance here. People have been waiting on him to reach his full potential for a long time, but every time he gets close, he takes a step backwards. At a certain point, you run out of chances.
Varner is a great match-up for Guillard (in my opinion) because he’s willing to trade, and there might not be a more singularly explosive lightweight in the entire UFC than “The Young Assassin.” Guillard’s wrestling should be enough to counter any takedown attempts Varner offers, and standing, the 29-year-old veteran is much quicker, and much more powerful than the former WEC champ.
Controlled aggression is the key for Guillard. If he can pace himself when he invariably hurts Varner – rather than rushing in and getting caught as he’s been known to do – he should be able to get back in the win column. As always, that’s a big if.
Prediction: Melvin Guillard by TKO, Round 1
Dustin Poirier (12-2) vs. Jonathan Brookins (13-5)
A pivotal fight for both fighters, which is crazy considering they’re both relatively young, and have been tabbed as contenders in the featherweight division. With both needing to rebound, my money is on Poirier, as “The Diamond” has done far more both inside the Octagon and outside of the cage to convince me that he belongs in the upper echelon of the division than Brookins.
Working with American Top Team will certainly help improve Poirier’s grappling, and his hands are already solid. Perhaps the biggest factor in this fight, however, is his focus – or what has appeared to be a lack of focus from Brookins. The former Ultimate Fighter winner hasn’t been able to put anything solid together since winning Season 12, with injuries and uneven performances being the story of his first two years in the UFC. When he’s focused and prepared, Brookins is dangerous, but it’s impossible to know where his head is at, which makes it impossible to pick him.
Poirier is the pick here regardless. The “Fightville” star is a quality prospect who charged up the rankings a little too fast before the division had a lot of depth, and it cost him against Chan Sung Jung in May. Taking a step back and honing his skills more will prove beneficial for Poirier in the long run, and should produce a win in this one.
Prediction: Dustin Poirier by TKO, Round 2
Preliminary Card Picks
Mike Pyle over James Head — Unanimous Decision
Johnny Bedford over Marcos Vinicius — TKO, Round 2
Vinc Pichel over Rustam Khabilov — TKO, Round 1
TJ Waldburger over Nick Catone — Submission, Round 2
Reuben Duran over Hugo Wolverine — Unanimous Decision
Mike Rio over John Cofer — Submission, Round 2
Tim Elliot over Jared Papazian — Submission, Round 1
Main Card Record: 118-66-1
Overall Record: 252-149-2, 1 NC
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